Sinner or Alcaraz? Swiatek to finally master grass? Flashscore's 2024 Wimbledon predictions
As they did with the first two Grand Slams of the year, Flashscore's Finley Crebolder and Tolga Akdeniz have bravely put themselves at risk of humiliation by trying to predict how things will go.
What will be the best match of the first round?
Finley Crebolder: The women's side has thrown up the best clashes of the opening round and the one I'm most looking forward to is Ajla Tomljanovic vs Jelena Ostapenko. It should be a competitive affair given Tomljanovic has made a really strong start to the grass-court season, reaching the Birmingham final, and could be a fiery one given the two had a huge falling out at the very same tournament three years ago.
Tolga Akdeniz: The first-round matches are actually pretty dull this year, especially on the men's side. But on the women's, there are a few interesting match-ups. Tomljanovic vs Ostapenko definitely stands out, and Karolina Muchova vs Paula Badosa should be fun. But I quite like Emma Raducanu vs Ekaterina Alexandrova.
Raducanu missed the tournament in 2023 with injury and hasn't really found her best over the last 18 months or so. But her performances are beginning to improve and she's keen to stress that she's mentally in a good place and enjoying her tennis again. She's been playing well on the grass in the last few weeks, claiming her first-ever top-10 win after beating Jessica Pegula in Eastbourne. So coming up against a player of the quality of Alexandrova - who is a very strong grass-court player - should be hopefully pretty exciting, especially with Raducanu having home support too.
Who will be the biggest underperformer?
Finley Crebolder: I think the biggest underperformers will be on the men's side given how many of the top male players fail to produce anything close to their best tennis on grass.
The first name I'll put down is Stefanos Tsitsipas. He's likely to face Sebastian Korda in the third round if he makes it that far, and the American is a much better grass-court player than the world number 11 in my opinion.
I also don't think world number five Daniil Medvedev will come close to reaching the semi-finals again as he did last year. I can see him going out to Grigor Dimitrov in the fourth round at best.
As for the women, I think Iga Swiatek has been given a really, really tough draw, so can see her wait to make the final four at Wimbledon going in for another year.
Tolga Akdeniz: Not the most surprising pick in the world, but world No.8 Casper Ruud. The Norwegian struggles when he is not on the clay, and even more so on the grass. It would not shock me one bit if Dominik Koepfer or Lorenzo Sonego beat him in round two or three, but if he makes it to the fourth round, I would be stunned if he was able to beat Tommy Paul or Alexander Bublik.
On the women's side, I'm going to go with defending champion Marketa Vondrousova. Her triumph last year completely came out of the blue, and I'm not sure she will be able to come close to replicating that this time around. Her form in 2024 has been pretty poor, and I'm not sure she is as good on this surface as last year's win suggests. Plus, she suffered a nasty fall in Berlin last week, and there were doubts over her participation at Wimbledon. I predict she won't make it past the fourth round.
Who will be the biggest surprise package?
Finley Crebolder: I had my heart set on backing grass-court expert Matteo Berrettini to get his career back on track at the All England Club after he reached the Stuttgart final, and then the draw went and handed him a likely second-round clash with Jannik Sinner, so there goes that dream. Instead, I'll get behind the man he beat in the 2021 Wimbledon semis, Hubert Hurkacz.
Now, Hurkacz has made the semis before, is the world number seven and has always done well on grass, so you may be thinking that I'd need to go pretty big to justify putting him down as a surprise package. Well, don't worry, I am. I'm predicting that he'll make the final.
I actually feel fairly confident about it too given he's ended up on the opposite side of the draw to Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz. He's down to meet Novak Djokovic in the quarters and Alexander Zverev in the semis, and I think he can beat both of them. His serve especially makes him a serious force on this surface.
On the women's side, I think Naomi Osaka has a draw she'll be happy with - or at least she would be if she looked at her draws - and she played some good stuff in Den Bosch and Berlin after her valiant defeat to Swiatek at Roland Garros. I could see her making the quarters or maybe even the semis.
Tolga Akdeniz: I quite like the look of Tommy Paul going into Wimbledon. He's a great athlete, moves on the grass well, is springy, and has a wide array of shots. Winning Queen's was a big result for him, and as previously mentioned, I expect him to beat Ruud and make the quarters.
Reigning champion Carlos Alcaraz could await in the quarters, which obviously, is tough. But Paul has won twice against the Spaniard before, with the head-to-head at two wins apiece. His style has troubled Alcaraz. I'm not saying he will beat Alcaraz, but he would definitely cause him problems and I guess you never know. I think he will reach the quarter-finals at a minimum though.
On the women's side, I'm going to be a bit cheeky and name two players: Anna Kalinskaya and Liudmila Samsonova. The pair are set to meet in the third round, and I think the winner of that match have a legitimate chance of going on a run. With Swiatek's unreliability on grass and Elena Rybakina's health issues, I'm thinking they may be able to take advantage. Also, bear in mind that Kalinskaya did reach the Berlin final and Samsonova won in Hertogenbosch.
Who will reach the women's final and who will be champion?
Finley Crebolder: I feel fairly confident saying that Aryna Sabalenka will reach her first Wimbledon final this year as long as she can stay fit. Her draw isn't particularly tough and her game suits grass perfectly.
On the other half of the draw, I can see the semi-final being a repeat of the 2022 final between Elena Rybakina and Ons Jabeur, and I'll back the latter to avenge the defeat she suffered that year, but it's a real toss-up.
As for the final, Sabalenka would be the favourite and the logical pick, but I'm going for Jabeur. She surely can't lose a Wimbledon final for the third year in a row, can she?
Tolga Akdeniz: Similar to what Fin said, I think Sabalenka will reach the final, but there is some uncertainty around a potential injury. If she is fit, I would back her, but otherwise, that half of the draw would really open up for Coco Gauff.
The other half is a lot more tricky to predict. I don't think I can back Swiatek on grass yet, and Rybakina's health issues mean I'm also struggling to imagine her in the final. Jabeur has reached the final twice, so picking her makes sense.
But I might as well do something different, so I'm going with one of my dark horses to reach the final. I'll pick Samsonova! I may look like a genius... or really stupid.
Who will reach the men's final and who will be champion?
Finley Crebolder: If they were placed on opposite sides of the draw, I'd confidently say that the final will be between Sinner and Alcaraz, but I instead have to predict who will win the likely semi-final clash between them, and after his run to the Halle title and Alcaraz's early exit at Queen's, I think the world number one will beat the reigning champion and avenge his French Open semi-final loss.
As I've already said, I can see Hurkacz making it through to the final on the other side given his biggest threats are an unfit Djokovic and a man he beat in the Halle semis in Zverev, although I do think Taylor Fritz is in with a chance too.
So, I'm predicting a repeat of the Halle final and I'm also predicting the same outcome, a Jannik Sinner win. That's maybe a bold call given how much less of a fight he put up against Djokovic than Alcaraz did last year, but he's added so much to his game since then.
Speaking of Djokovic, his form and fitness would rule him out in my eyes if he was any other player, but I wouldn't exactly be surprised if he stepped things up at a tournament that he was completely dominating until last year...
Tolga Akdeniz: I agree with Fin on basically everything he said. But the one difference for me is that I think Zverev will get to the final instead of Hurkacz, and then he will go on to win his maiden Grand Slam title. Not much logic behind it besides I want to have a different winner, and there's some sort of storyline there about Zverev learning from his mistakes in Paris and finally winning a Slam.
