How much of a threat is Carlos Alcaraz to Novak Djokovic at Wimbledon?

"You said you didn't have high expectations for this tournament and you won it. Will you have more at Wimbledon?"

This question was put to Alcaraz by a journalist at a press conference after his victory at Queen's. To this, the Spaniard smiled, before declaring: "No... Because if I don't have any expectations, I'm going to win the tournament!"

Alcaraz has played 11 matches on grass since the start of his career. It's not his favourite surface, and yet the kid from El Palmar has already won an ATP title on it, claiming an impressive 6-4, 6-4 victory in the final over a player who loves grass, Australian Alex De Minaur.

It has to be said then that the Spaniard has adapted to the surface and, with time, is likely to establish himself as one of the contenders for the Wimbledon title, season after season.

But in 2023, despite his recent more than promising performances, Djokovic's figure looms large over his ambition to lift his first trophy at the All England Club.

Is he a genuine favourite or, ultimately, an outsider?

As usual, Alcaraz is looking for positives and is optimistic ahead of his second Grand Slam on British soil. 

"No, seriously, I'm going into Wimbledon full of confidence," he said. "Over the weekend, I played at my highest level. I feel like one of the favourites for Wimbledon, even if I still lack experience on grass."

This year he comes to London in a different context to last year, with the status of world number one, as a Grand Slam champion and with an almost perfect 2023 in terms of titles won. That being said, grass is still a surface he has to get used to, and while he won Queen's, he knows that in a five-set match, he will have to improve, with his serving a particular focus.

"Do I have what it takes to become a real grass-court player? Yes, I think so," said the Spaniard. "I'm constantly trying to dictate the game with my forehand, and I've been working a lot on my serve over the last few months. It's helped me a lot this week. On grass, I work on it more because it's an essential shot, the shot I work on the most."

Alcaraz has won the most titles in 2023, tied with Daniil Medvedev on five, but a Grand Slam is a different story, as Djokovic often says, describing it as a different sport. And indeed, the Serb, the record holder of 23 Grand Slam titles, knows what he is talking about. He has struggled in smaller tournaments but claimed the two majors on the tour in the 2023 season.

Why is that? Because when you play a Grand Slam, the pressure and match management are not the same. These tournaments are for different players and that's a reality.

What about managing the pressure?

And, of course, we have to think back to the semi-final between the two men at Roland Garros.

In Paris, the Spaniard cruised past everyone who got in his way before the semis. After Stefanos Tsitsipas was crushed 6-2, 6-1, 7-6 in the quarter-finals, he was seen as the absolute favourite, even more so after his season on clay. Then the greatest player in the history of tennis came along and everything changed.

" It's not easy to play against Novak, you know. That's the truth of it. The next time I play him, I hope it'll be different, but I'll still be nervous. I've never felt like this before," he admitted after the match, during which he suffered cramps in his arms and legs due to the stress and pressure.

So will Alcaraz be able to handle that pressure when he next meets Djokovic? We'd be inclined to say that he'll have learned from his mistakes and will be better able to manage his emotions, but that remains to be seen. Whatever happens, the Serb remains the overwhelming favourite at Wimbledon.

"Novak (Djokovic) is still the big favourite for the tournament. I think I've seen a statistic that says he's won more matches at Wimbledon than any other member of the Top 20. That says it all, doesn't it? I'll have to be at my very best. But if that's the case, I've got a good chance," Alcaraz stated.

On paper, he appears to be the only man equipped to attempt to end Djokovic's dominance on the grass of the All-England Club, but with only played 11 matches in his career on this surface, doing so will be his biggest challenge yet.