Tolga Akdeniz: So... I thought Australia were dead certs to win the whole thing...
Pat Dempsey: Yep, and now they're very much out.
TA: What this World Cup has shown, more so than the other World Cups due to the rainy condition, is just how cruel the format is. They lost just one game, didn't they? It's a cruel structure.
PD: It was just all about the Net Run Rate for them. Once they got battered by New Zealand in the first game, it was a constant uphill battle.
TA: It was killer. After the loss, they just never seemed happy, even when they were winning. It was always on their mind and they were just constantly edgy and thinking they needed more runs, or needed to bowl the other team out quicker.
PD: There was a lot of frustration wasn't there? Even all the noise about Mitchell Starc being dropped in the final match against Afghanistan, there were rumours about things going on behind the scenes. Because it didn't really make sense to drop him.
TA: I kind of think they should be moving away from Starc and Pat Cummins in this format now though. I've never really been convinced by Cummins in T20s, and Starc's form really hasn't been great for a while now. He barely plays T20 cricket outside of major tournaments for Australia.
PD: I think Cummins should definitely have been dropped before Starc. But it seems their reputation proceeds them so much. People look beyond stats and performances and have it in their mind that 'Starc is the best white ball bowler'.
TA: And for me, that's just not the case anymore. He's no longer that player. I don't think they should have dropped him for just their final group stage game, especially against a side like Afghanistan who might struggle against his extra pace, but I think Starc is vulnerable now. And I've never been convinced by Cummins in this format. Even Josh Hazlewood to be fair, wasn't that great in the tournament.
PD: Hazelwood was coming in in good form at least, and has been sensational in this format for a while. The Starc one is just so odd though, because Australia haven't been the type of side to mix and match or think about match-ups so much. Kane Richardson hadn't played a match all tournament too.
TA: What makes some of their fast bowlers' poor performances even more strange is that this has very much been a bowler's tournament (20.40 runs per wicket and 7.30 runs per over throughout - the lowest ever). Just look at the stats of the openers (21.94 average and a strike rate of 115.7 - also the lowest ever). It's been a bowler's tournament.
PD: Look at Aaron Finch. In lots of innings, he was striking at just over a hundred and it was a real struggle. That innings against Sri Lanka was painful, he just couldn't get out no matter how hard he tried. You constantly thought he would, but it wouldn't happen.
TA: Exactly, David Warner was in strange nick too, playing some odd shots like that switch hit against Afghanistan. Other openers like Babar Azam, Mohammad Rizwan, Rohit Sharma, Alex Hales and Jos Buttler - typically top-class openers just couldn't get going.
PD: In general for Australia, I don't think there's too much shame in how they've gone out, with the weather and NRR being the main issues. The game with England not happening was a big blow.
TA: It is cruel. Losing one match out of five and being knocked out is a bit unfair. But at the same time, Australia's players have definitely underdelivered. Marcus Stoinis has been really good, he's scored runs, but the top three haven't really turned up. Glenn Maxwell has been inconsistent as usual, and Mathew Wade and Tim David have somehow, faced just 15 and 18 balls respectively.
PD: Warner's dismissal against Afghanistan just smacked of trying too hard and the wheels falling off a bit. But at the same time, I think that the last World Cup victory papered over a lot of the cracks, and they continued to persist with some players who really shouldn't be there anyone. So maybe the failure here might thrust them into making some changes. Get a new captain in, move on some players who have been around for too long, and create a better T20 team.
TA: So New Zealand topped that group in the end. Every single time, we seem to underestimate them, yet every single time, they bring their A-game and qualify for the knockouts. They know their limitations and just know how to get through big tournaments. Devon Conway is a gorgeous batsman and bats through an innings, Finn Allen has impressed at being that aggressive batsman at the top, the middle order with Glenn Phillips has done well. Kane Williamson is the man out of form horribly though. Their bowlers are always impressive though, Trent Boult and Tim Southee are two of the most potent new ball bowlers you're ever going to face.
PD: Williamson hopefully has played himself back into form though, with that knock against Ireland - albeit it is 'just' Ireland.
But yeah, even in our last chat, we said we shouldn't underestimate New Zealand, but still went ahead to say they wouldn't be good enough to make it out of the group. We tipped England and Australia ahead of them. But summing up the topsy-turvy nature of the tournament, England finished second behind New Zealand despite beating them, and their only loss came in a rain-affected match against Ireland. So you could easily make a case that England were the best side in that group.
TA: Which is funny because I don't think they've played that well at all. They haven't been convincing with the bat. Most of their players haven't fired. But some of their bowling has been good, especially at the death - Sam Curran has been one of the best players of the tournament in my opinion.
PD: Definitely, he's been an absolute star. But let's talk about the other group now.
TA: First and foremost, that India vs Pakistan clash was the best T20 match I've ever seen, and one of, if not the best match cricket match I've ever seen.
PD: I was shaking with excitement.
TA: Honestly, same. It was just constant drama from beginning to end.
PD: It was such a rollercoaster too. One minute India were on the front foot, taking some early wickets, and then Pakistan did the same thing to India in their innings and they looked in trouble. But then came Virat Kohli.
TA: It was just one of the best innings you're ever likely to see. Mindblowing. That shot where he somehow slapped it back up the ground. Is that the best shot of all time?
PD: I don't even know how to describe it. A back-foot, cross-bat slap, back up the ground. I'm so glad that we are seeing him back to his best.
We spoke about him before the tournament, and how his recent form has silenced some of the noise around him and his place in the T20 side. He was beginning to hit his straps nicely. But I don't think anyone thought that he was still able to produce one of his greatest innings.
TA: The thing about Kohli is that he always starts slowly, and settles into innings. But the issue was that when he was out of form, he was getting out before he could really accelerate. Before he was getting out on 35 off 30 balls. But now, once he gets to 30, he can put his foot on the pedal and suddenly he's 60 off 40 and it looks a hell of a lot better. It's similar to Williamson really. Because his form is so bad, his run-a-ball 30s and 40s are looking really poor. But a prime Williamson turns those into 50s and 60s with a strike rate of around 130/135.
PD: Exactly. You can chop his innings in half. Before he would only play the first half of an innings and not get to the part where he really gets going. And as a result, his stats looked really poor. It's how Babar and Rizwan play too.
TA: Totally.
PD: On Pakistan, it's funny how before the tournament, everyone expected their hopes to rest on their two openers. But instead, they've totally misfired and the middle order have been the ones to bail them out. The likes of Mohammad Haris, Shan Masood and Shadab Khan have all contributed. Their bowling is obviously strong.
TA: I can't quite believe that they've qualified though.
PD: They'll be counting their lucky stars, definitely. But as we have said, the fickle nature of this tournament, if they hadn't bowled the worst last over of all time against India, then the dynamics of the group would be totally different.
TA: On South Africa, I really thought that they had a strong chance of winning the whole thing. I like their bowling attack a lot, I thought they would cause any side a problem. So imagine my shock when I woke up to see that the Netherlands had beaten them and they had been sent home. I don't like to put the tag of 'chokers' on South Africa, but boy, did they do just that.
PD: They've almost outdone themselves. There's choking, then there's losing to the worst team in the Super 12.
TA: It's baffling because for large portions of the tournament, I thought they had been one of the best sides. But again, that just shows how cruel the format of the World Cup can be. The teams you think are doing pretty well, are suddenly out of it. It's also felt like any team can beat any team at any point.
PD: Which makes predicting the semi-finals and final so interesting.
TA: I'm scared of making another 'Australia will win it' prediction, but here goes. In the first semi, I do think New Zealand will have too much for Pakistan. I don't think the Pakistani side have been that great, and as mentioned, have been lucky. With Babar and Rizwan not scoring runs, it's going to be tough to rely on other players against the likes of Boult, Southee, Lockie Ferguson bowling fearsome pace in the middle. Mitchell Santner and Ish Sodhi have been really good too. I just think New Zealand will have too much for them and find a way to get through.
India vs England will be much tougher to predict. But I do think India have been the best side in the tournament, and England haven't been totally convincing with the bat. For India, the form of the two openers has been the only real issue. So I'm leaning to them. Suryakumar Yadav, by the way...
PD: He's different level. The player of the tournament so far for me. At the moment, even though Kohli is narrowly topping the run-scoring chart, I think Suryakumar will overtake him. His strike rate this tournament is 194. It's astonishing.
TA: Every time he bats, he seems to score 65 off 25 balls. I think the stat is that he is hitting a boundary at just under every four balls.
PD: He's phenomenal. He's a real 360 batsman, there's not a shot he can't hit.
So yeah, I agree with you on India. I think they'll make it. But I'm backing Pakistan on the other side, purely because I would absolutely love to see a Pakistan vs India final. The final the cricket world wants to see. And imagine that redemption arc. Back at the MCG, they get their victory. Even though India are a better side, there's something about Pakistan where they keep defying people. I would just love to see that happen.
TA: Imagine that. The scenes would be crazy.
PD: And one of the themes of the tournament has been that the attendances have been low, unless India have been playing. So that final would be perfect if you want to see a rocking MCG.
But from a cricketing perspective, on their day, all four of those teams could beat each other, that's what makes it so interesting. It could just be a matter of a player showing up, with that defining innings or defining spell.
TA: And every team has a player like that. Kohli and Suryakumar for India. Conway and Phillips at New Zealand. Babar and Rizwan could come good for Pakistan. Even Buttler for England, we haven't seen the best of him at all yet.
PD: We spoke about breakout stars in our previous roundtable, so which player has stood out to you in the Super 12?
TA: Sikandar Raza for Zimbabwe has been really good. He has surprised me because I didn't know much about him.
PD: Yeah, he's been great. So clever with the ball.
TA: Obviously Suryakumar and Kohli stand out. But for me, Sam Curran has been the best player of the tournament so far. He's so small and looks like a child, yet sprints in with that terrifying, ferocious look on his face. Bowling at the death is the hardest place to bowl, and he's already mastered the craft. He's so intelligent, knows the dimensions of the grounds he plays on, and absolutely nails his deliveries. His yorkers have been perfect, and how good has his bouncer been? Where does he get that extra pace from? He's 24 years old. I'm a big, big fan.
PD: For sure, he's probably been their most important player. And before the tournament, there was debate over whether he should play. Would he have even been in the side if Reece Topley was fit?
Shadab Khan has been one of my standouts. I must confess, I didn't know a lot about him beforehand, I haven't followed Pakistan as much.
TA: He's been one of their key players for a little bit of time now. Their main leg spinner, but his batting has become really destructive too and he has been pushed up the order. His knock against South Africa was blistering. He's just 24 too, he's a class act.
PD: He's their vice-captain as well, he's definitely been so impressive. The Sri Lankan spinners have also stood out. Wanindu Hasaranga is simply one of the best around. It looks like he could be on his way to being the leading wicket taker in back-to-back T20 World Cups. He has played more matches than others, but it does showcase what a player he is.
Maheesh Theekshana too. He has all the tricks you need to be a top-class spinner. He was fun. He finished with nine wickets. A really good return.One of our players to watch before the tournament, Tristan Stubbs, has been a bit disappointing though. We were really excited to see him, but he hasn't been in the best form at all. That hasn't gone as expected.
TA: We even mentioned Michael Bracewell, and he hasn't even played a game!
PD: What do you think about Ben Stokes' performances?
TA: The knock against Sri Lanka was absolutely pivotal, but besides that, he's been really poor with the bat. Even that innings I mentioned, was just over a run-a-ball (42 off 36). It was the type of match that suited him, where he could just march carefully towards a target, and not have to be striking at over 130. In pretty much every other innings, he has looked totally out of sorts and doesn't look right in T20s. So maybe Josh was right about what he said about him in the last roundtable!
He has been effective with the ball though. He's got this ability, when you throw him the ball at really crucial times, of picking up big wickets. He did it against New Zealand to break a mounting partnership.
PD: Well, regardless, now is not the time to make any big changes.
Who do you think will be the player of the tournament in a week?
TA: I think Kohli is currently leading that. But should Suryakumar come up with a few stunning knocks to lead them to victory, then it could be him. It's definitely those two right now. Even if they get to the final and don't win it, it will be one of those two. But as of this moment, I think Kohli.
PD: What if New Zealand win it, on the back of a blistering Glenn Phillips century?
TA: Then I'll be proud! My player to watch before the tournament! But of course, there is a lot to happen from now to the trophy ceremony.
So, who do you think will win it then?
PD: I'm going to stick with my pre-tournament prediction of India. Nothing has changed my mind about that. Plus, the only reservation we had about them before the tournament was the bowling - especially the death bowling - with Jasprit Bumrah missing. But Arshdeep Singh has stepped up, which makes me think that they'll be too strong. What about you?
TA: You know what, I think New Zealand will win it. They've been to the 2021 T20 World Cup final, the 2016 T20 World Cup semi-final, and the finals in the 2015 and 2019 ODI World Cups. They've never just been good enough, sprinkled with some major bad luck in 2019. But their time is now. This time they'll do it. And it would make me happy to see Kane Williamson pick up an international limited over trophy.
PD: I agree, it would do. And it feels like we may be coming to the end of his tenure as captain soon too, so what a way it would be to end an era for him. It would be deserved, because they've been the most consistent limited-over side in tournaments.
But my prediction is, India win an absolute epic against Pakistan in the final.
TA: After two super-overs. They've changed the rule now, if you tie in the super over, you just do another one. The boundary count rule is gone. New Zealand must be fuming.
And I'll go with Williamson's men then. After so many near-misses, their time is now.
