Data-driven Player of the Month: Rafael Leao, the forward taking Milan to European glory
If you've been following Serie A this season, you may have already had the idea of how quickly things can change in football. Back at the beginning of February, AC Milan were still reeling from a results crisis. Mainly due to injuries to key defensive players, the Rossoneri went through a seven-game winless streak, during which they had to endure a five-goal loss to offensively below-average Sassuolo.
At the moment, however, the mood in the Milan supporters' camp is diametrically opposed. In the league, the team is in close contact with the places that ensure participation in the Champions League, thanks to a convincing victory against the leader from Naples, whom they also knocked out in the quarter-finals of the Champions League. They will face old city rival Inter for a place in the final.
Leao has been at the heart of everything important during these "Italian weeks". The Sporting Lisbon alumnus belongs to a group of complex wingers who not only get themselves into quality shooting opportunities, but also regularly set them up for their teammates.
Better than the jewel of Naples
He already reigned supreme in both activities in the previous Serie A season, dominating the expected goals (xG) and expected assists (xA) statistics by a wide margin at his position. The former assesses a player's movement and choice of shot location, the latter the quality of his final pass.
He has continued his performances in the current season. Among players with at least 1,000 minutes played, he has created the most dangerous chances of all with his passes. And only Riccardo Orsolini (26) of Bologna and Nico Gonzalez (25) of Fiorentina have got into better shooting positions, but their lead is minimal. According to these models, Leao has a 30% chance of scoring a goal and a 22% chance of getting an assists in every game.
Just how big the Portuguese's offensive contribution to AC Milan is also shown by his numbers in an advanced model called value added per goal (GPA+). This measures the extent to which a player's touches on the ball, i.e. passes and runs, increase a team's chances of scoring. In the final third, Leao sets up the most valuable situations in all of Serie A between the wingers - Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (22, Napoli), Domenico Berardi (28, Sassuolo), Jonathan Ikone (25, Fiorentina) and others are below him.
After Berardi, he is also the most frequently shooting winger in Serie A. Although he can get his movement and attempts from central areas inside the opponent's penalty area, a large part of his shots come after typical actions, when he gets rid of one or more defending players on the left side with his great dribbling and finishes at the back post.
However, his play is hampered by the large number of shot attempts from outside the box. Out of 78 shots from this area, 30 were on target, and he converted only one of them. Historically, he has not stood out as a finisher, but this is certainly not the case in the current season, where he has scored 12 times against seven expected goals. However, due to his high volume of shots, he can be expected to be among the league's top scorers on a regular basis.
Once Leao gets into the box, he applies his tremendous vision in it and can often find a better positioned teammate instead of a shot. This is well illustrated by pass analysis, which shows that he creates his most valuable chances with passes inside the penalty area, from where he distributes the ball underneath him, centres into the spaces around the penalty mark or moves the ball with a shorter pass into a better position.
Outside the box, he also creates a high volume of chances with centres from deep and diagonal passes from the midfield.
Number one dribbler
Per 100 passes played, he has the most in Serie A that are followed by a shot on target. Thanks to his results in other advanced data metrics, his actions on the pitch can be simplified into the following statement - once you see Leo win the ball, among all the wingers in Serie A, there is the greatest chance of an interesting goal scoring opportunity subsequently arising from that touch.
Passing isn't his only prerogative, though. Dribbling is also a vital part of his game. In terms of total dribbles, he is at the level of the Neapolitan Kvaratskhelia and is also one of the players with the highest success. What is important, however, is the extent to which his dribbling is effective.
In fact, in a metric assessing the effectiveness of ball management, he is the third best winger behind Atalanta's Jeremie Boga (26) and Sassuolo's Armand Lauriente (24). Thanks to his ability to get around opponents one-on-one at high speed or to set up space for further action by cutting into open space, he can seemingly easily get a shot or pass in a dangerous area. No other Serie A player has created such a high volume of shots by dribbling as he has.
A perfect example of how much Leao understands the ball is his assist for Olivier Giroud's goal in the Champions League quarter-final rematch against Napoli. But there have been countless such situations over the last two seasons.
Thanks to a combination of speed, fantastic ball management and accurate final passes, Leao is not dependent on service from his teammates. They will, however, rely on his skills in extremely important matches the rest of the year.
Can the Rossoneri, with the help of their Portuguese gem, make it back to the Champions League from the domestic competition or taste the atmosphere of the Champions League final again after 16 years? We will find out very soon.
