Can Chelsea reject Romelu Lukaku be a success at Roma?
It was reported on Friday that Roma had entered talks to sign Lukaku on loan.
The Blues are hoping to move Lukaku on before the end of the European transfer window on September 1st, with either a permanent move or a loan deal that includes a fee for both options.
A switch to Roma would see Lukaku return to Serie A where he has spent three of the last four seasons, and the Italian capital should represent an appealing destination for him, who is currently an outcast at Chelsea.
Roma have finished outside the top four in each of the last five Serie A campaigns, but their stock is high after impressive recent excursions on the European stage, winning the Europa Conference league two seasons ago, and making it to the final of the Europa League last season.
They’ll be looking to push on again this season, however, it’s not been a straightforward summer for the three-time Serie A winners. Funds have been tight, with their only cash purchase having been World Cup winner Leandro Paredes (29) who they bought from PSG in a deal worth just over £2million.
Revamping the midfield has clearly been a priority for Jose Mourinho (60) after moving on the likes of Nemanja Matic (35), Mady Camara (26) and Georginio Wijnaldum (32) this past summer.
On top of Paredes, Roma have added another midfielder from PSG in the form of Renato Sanches who joined on a season-long loan, while Houssem Aouar (25) represents a tidy acquisition on a free transfer.
Despite those improvements in the middle, Roma faces real issues at the top end of the pitch which could hinder their progression this season, and that’s where they’ll hope Lukaku can assist.
Last season only Torino, who finished 10th, scored fewer goals than Roma (50) from the division’s top 10. This is despite Roma having Serie A’s fourth-highest Expected Goal (xG) total (64.02).
Tammy Abraham (25), their star striker, shoulders some of the blame for having scored just eight league goals which was nine fewer than what he managed in the season before, but many regular watchers of Roma felt this was just a blip of a campaign for the former Chelsea striker.
The England international would have been tipped to bounce back until he suffered an anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury on the final day of the last Serie A season which means he won’t be fit again until at least Christmas.
As it stands, Roma are relying on either Paulo Dybala (29) or Andrea Belotti (29) to deliver their goals. The latter did bag two in their 2-2 opening-day draw with Salernitana, however, his failure to score a single league goal from 31 appearances in his debut season in the Italian capital does raise doubts about his long-term reliability.
In truth, though, there are those same concerns around Lukaku. The Belgium international was one of Europe’s most in-demand strikers in the summer of 2017. He had just spent four seasons at Everton where he bagged an impressive combined haul of 68 Premier League goals - 25 of which came in his final season at Goodison Park.
As a result, there was no shortage of transfer interest, but it was former club Chelsea and Manchester United who led the race for his signature. The Red Devils, then managed by Mourinho, won the race in a deal worth up to £90million.
Mourinho will hope he can land him again, but notably this time, there’s no competition to stave off.
Having spent three of the past four seasons with Inter, there was a desire on both sides to make that switch permanent. But Lukaku scuppered those plans in mid-July, not only by stalling on agreeing personal details with the club, despite Chelsea and Inter finding a compromise on a fee, but also by exploring a potential move to fierce rivals Juventus in between.
The fallout from that saga left a sour taste in the mouths of both Italian clubs who walked away from any potential deal for Lukaku.
A move to Saudi Arabia was a reported alternative option, but not one Lukaku himself seemed keen to explore. He’s eager to stay in Europe, yet, there’s a perception that his abilities are wavering meaning there’s not been a clammer to secure his signature among the elite clubs on the continent.
In league action, he’s managed just two 20+ goals seasons in the six campaigns since he departed Everton, while a number of high-profile misses on the biggest stages (World Cup, Champions League final), have further harmed his reputation.
Yet, Lukaku’s endeavours haven’t been helped by injury issues and it’s worth noting that he scored 20+ goals in two of the three seasons from the last six in which he managed to start more than 30 league fixtures.
Furthermore, his underlying numbers still paint him as an accurate and clinical goalscorer. Across the last six seasons, he has accumulated a combined league xG of 81.3, while scoring a total of 93 goals. That’s an impressive overperformance over a prolonged and appropriate sample size.
Additionally, his best form has undoubtedly come in Italy, where the game is played at a speed that plays into the Belgium international’s strengths, and the familiarity Lukaku has with Mourinho could be a key factor in getting the best from the striker.
The Portuguese manager, who was Lukaku’s coach at Chelsea and also Manchester United, usually prefers to play tactical systems that deploy one forward spearheading the attack, such as the 3-4-2-1 he used most often last season. While Lukaku has shown himself to be a versatile asset over the years who can play in a front two or even on the wing, his physical qualities make him the perfect out-and-out striker to lead an attack.
Roma’s system will benefit him in that it’ll often include two number.10 profiles and aggressive attack-minded wing-backs, all of whom shoulder a lot of the creative burden. Their high xG last season shows it proved effective in terms of creating a large quantity of high-quality chances.
They now require someone who can apply the finishing touch to those moves, and a lot of the evidence indicates that Lukaku can still be that man.
