Hack the weekend: Palace on the rise, underdogs with pride in the second tiers

That's why Flashscore, in cooperation with a team of analysts from Czech data company 11Hacks, is bringing you a data-driven overview every Friday about where those (un)expected results might occur in the wide world of football to help you ultimately hack the weekend.

Aston Villa - Crystal Palace, Saturday (16:00 CET)

Crystal Palace players did not fare well at first in the last season of the English Premier League. However, after Patrick Vieira was replaced as head coach by the experienced Roy Hodgson, they managed to improve their 12th-place finish from the previous season by one thanks to vastly improved spring performances.

You might be thinking that Palace are mediocre and actually somewhat uninteresting league team but the opposite is true.

For the third season in a row, the club from south-east London has produced extremely impressive defensive performances that are second to none even in comparison to teams from the so-called 'top six'.

In terms of the data metric of expected goals allowed, Palace finished the 2021/22 season with the fourth-best defence, which was certainly unexpected (pardon the pun).

They repeated that performance in the following season. Once again, their defence kept their opponents at bay and, according to the same metric, the Londoners recorded the fifth-best figures in 2022/23. In the final tally, they conceded only three more goals (not counting penalties) than second-placed Arsenal - Manchester United and Brighton were better by only two.

The team's real problem was a dysfunctional attack. Only Wolverhampton, Southampton and Nottingham Forest created fewer quality chances.

Palace have continued their trend of excellent defence in the current season. Although only a very small sample of four games has been played, only Manchester City is allowing fewer chances for the opponents.

Therefore, on Saturday, Hodgson's squad should only allow Aston Villa a minimum of chances from counter-attacks and, moreover, be very dominant at set pieces.

Furthermore, Villa's defence has been weakened hugely by Tyrone Mings' injury at the start of the season and does not seem to have fully dealt with the absence of their key centre back.

The London side's talisman, Eberechi Eze, has been putting in a fantastic performance so far and Odsonne Edouard has started to hit the form of his life, hence this might be a more even matchup than it first appears.

Elversberg - Hamburg, Saturday (13:00 CET)

Could one of the hottest candidates for promotion to the Bundesliga and current leader of 2. Bundesliga struggle at the ground of a newly-promoted side that managed to accumulate only four points in the first five rounds and, as a result, is only 15th in the table? Possibly.

Although Hamburg may seem like too big a side for Elversberg at first glance, the data suggests that they can at least trouble the famous team on home soil.

In fact, the third-division champions have so far shown that they are very well prepared for the 2. Bundesliga. They have managed to produce interesting numbers even though they have so far played successively: Hannover, Hansa Rostock, Kaiserslautern, Dusseldorf and Osnabruck.

Apart from the last mentioned, these are the teams that are currently between fourth and seventh in the table - so, tough opposition.

But Elversberg should be in fourth place according to the expected points metric (adjusted for penalties). This metric looks at the quality of chances allowed and created and then calculates how likely a team was to score in matches.

The data shows that only a quartet of teams have a better defence than Horst Steffen's charges, and the same is true of the attack. Hamburg dominates the competition but, on Saturday, they will have to battle a determined low block and try to deal with dangerous set pieces.

Norwich - Stoke Saturday (16:00 CET)

Something similar will also be seen in the English Championship this weekend. Stoke, the team that is currently fifth in the standings after five rounds, will visit Norwich. However, here too the table does not reflect the real strength of the bookies' underdog.

Stoke lost to Millwall and then to Preston in their last two matches but in both games, Alex Neil's sie had territorial superiority and created more dangerous chances.

According to the metrics of expected points, the Potters are even sitting in fifth place. Norwich should be the leading team in the Championship according to the same metric but their players can also falter at times - as they proved in the last round when they handed all three points to lowly Rotherham.

In the current season, Norwich plays with a low block and often relies on counterattacks. However, Stoke manages to defend these situations very well. Offensive set pieces are a strong weapon for both teams. However, on the other hand, they both allow their opponents a huge number of chances.

For Stoke, set pieces are a realistic way to score. In this respect, Norwich will sorely miss injured stopper Grant Hanley, who won almost 80% of aerial duels last season. Overseas strikers Joshua Sargent and Onel Hernandez, both important offensive players, probably won't start due to health problems.