Hack the Weekend: Manchester United and Lazio to struggle, Brest favourites against Lens
That's why Flashscore, in cooperation with a team of analysts from Czech data company 11Hacks, brings you a data-driven overview every Friday about where those (un)expected results might occur in the world of football to help you ultimately hack the weekend.
Manchester United vs Everton, Saturday - 13:30 CET
At the end of February, Everton's 10-point deduction for violation of financial rules was reduced to six, and the Merseyside club jumped to 16th place in the table with a five-point buffer on the relegation places.
It is possible that they will now improve their position before the end of the season, and their performances certainly point towards that, especially in terms of the efficiency of their defence.
The numbers speak volumes. Only Liverpool, Manchester City and Arsenal have allowed fewer dangerous shots than the Toffees this season. This is made all the more impressive given that it's 21-year-old Englishman Jarrad Branthwaite at the heart of the defence.
You only need to look at his phenomenal performance against Manchester City last month, where he looked like an elite defender at such a young age. Branthwaite is helped by central midfielders Amadou Onana, James Garner and Idrissa Gueye. Together, they form a very difficult midfield to penetrate. Now, it might be the turn of another Manchester team to find out.
United are tipped by the bookmakers as strong favourites, however, by the data metric of expected points, they should be seven points behind Everton. Ahead of the match against Sean Dyche's well-drilled side, it is not an encouraging sign that United have only the 12th best attack in the league in terms of expected goals created.
Erik ten Hag will continue to miss his go-to goalscorer Rasmus Hojlund, while unspecified health issues also threaten the involvement Marcus Rashford and Harry Maguire.
Although Everton have struggled to convert chances all season, there are positives to be found in relation to their attack. They will come up against a side whose system of play is based on quick transitions in attack. And while Everton defend breaks superbly, United are extremely vulnerable from them.
Lazio vs Udinese, Monday 20:45 CET
The players of Lazio must be struggling to come to terms with what's happened in the last few days. Not only have they been dumped out of the Champions League by Bayern Munich, they also lost a wild Serie A match against AC Milan last Friday. The latter will have a major impact on the upcoming game against Udinese. Largely because Lazio had three players sent off.
In Monday's match, Luca Pellegrini, Adam Marusic, Alessio Romagnoli, the influential Matteo Guendouzi and Italian youngster Nicolo Rovella, one of the best defensive sixes this season, will not play due to injury. Although it must also be taken into account that Udinese will not be able to call upon the services of talented central defender Festa Ebosele and defensive midfielder Wallace, the blow to the functioning of Lazio's team will be huge.
Coach Maurizio Sarri will look to find a way to unlock Udinese's deep defensive block, something his team has struggled with regularly this season. The low number of dangerous shots created was a common issue in performances against Monza, Salernitana, Genoa and Verona.
In addition, the visitors will have a visible advantage in the air, as defending headers is one of the home side's weaknesses. They allow a high number of dangerous shots that come from wide deliveries and this will be the plan for Udinese.
Lens vs Brest, Saturday 21:00 CET
Fans of French football will be treated to a number of interesting duels this weekend, including the one between second-placed Brest and sixth-placed Lens. The home team is the favourite, but the current form speaks more in favour of the opponent.
As for the quality of the defences and attacks since the beginning of December, Brest have been doing very well. With 0.8 expected goals conceded per game, they boast the best defensive record in this period and thanks to the excellent shot-stopping of Marc Bizot, they have conceded just three goals.
On top of that, the attack is working incredibly effectively. Brest have scored 18 goals since December, only one less than the rampant Marseille. Lens have also done well up front, but have allowed a significantly higher volume of chances, resulting in six more goals conceded.
Brest certainly won't travel to Stade Bollaert-Delelis to defend, and one can expect quick counter attacks which Lens might struggle to deal with. In addition, the home side are in serious danger of being unable to field striker Elye Wahi, who has scored in all three previous rounds, due to shoulder problems. If that were indeed the case, Brest's chances of winning would be even greater.
