Hack the Weekend: Big derbies in Spain and England take centre stage
Fulham vs Crystal Palace, Saturday 16:00 CET
Crystal Palace have recently stepped into a new era bounded by the arrival of Austrian coach Oliver Glasner and since then have already managed to catch the attention of the public with several top results.
This is despite the fact that the team's April schedule included a number of extremely difficult games. Although the Londoners were not able to beat a solid Bournemouth and Manchester City, they have subsequently claimed valuable scalps against Liverpool, West Ham and, most recently, Newcastle. They close out a hectic month with a derby against Fulham.
When the two teams met for the first time this season, they gave the fans at Selhurst Park no joy at all. There were only nine shots from inside the area, as the game ended 0-0. Palace amassed 0.37 expected goals and Fulham were not much better with 0.56. Seven months later, however, the goalscoring potential is much higher.
In this calendar year, the home side boast the ninth-best attack in the league in terms of the quality of chances created and goals scored, which is certainly impressive. Palace, on the other hand, benefit from the renewed chemistry between Eberechi Eze and Michael Olise, complemented by the very in-form Jean-Philippe Mateta. With all three on the pitch, Palace have a very dangerous attacking unit.
A big asset to the team who is still only 20 years old is central midfielder Adam Wharton, who not only performs very well defensively but also excels offensively with great vision and a good feel for the final pass.
The data analysis of the chance creation in the final third shows that Glasner's team has a lot of different attacking strategies, threatening in the air and on the ground, and are especially dangerous in transitions. And it is from these situations that Fulham have been very vulnerable of late...
Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao, Saturday 21:00 CET
Atletico Madrid will have a huge match this weekend, as they will be looking to remain in fourth place ahead of Athletic Bilbao. The two teams are currently separated by just three points and a single position in the table. Although Diego Simeone's side are tipped as favourites by the bookmakers, they will face a very strong and evenly-matched team.
The Basque team are one of the best defensive units in the world's top five leagues. Since December, they have maintained an average of only 0.68 expected goals allowed per game. Minus penalty kicks, Unai Simon has fished the ball out of the net only eight times during this period, while Atletico have conceded 17 more goals.
The defensive discovery of the season from Bilbao's point of view is 23-year-old Spaniard Benat Prados, who gained experience in the second division with Mirandes last season. In the current campaign, he has been dominating in the midfield and regularly manages to win a huge number of defensive duels. In the aforementioned sample of the last five months, the two teams are very similar offensively and have scored 24 goals each.
In terms of style, however, the match should suit Bilbao a little more. As the team with the highest number of counter-attacks per game, they will meet an opponent that leaks many counter-attacks. Specifically, the third highest in the league, meaning that only Almeria and Las Palmas are worse off. Proof of this is the December friendly, which Bilbao dominated, as well as the following two duels in the semi-finals of the domestic cup.
Real Betis vs Sevilla, Sunday 21:00 CET
Another derby. Betis are three points behind sixth place, which is qualification for the Europa League. Although twelfth-placed Sevilla have very different worries this season, this does not diminish the importance of the upcoming El Gran Derbi in the eyes of the fans, especially when it offers the opportunity to thwart the age-old rivals' rise up the table.
At this point, it can already be stated that Sevilla are a better team after the arrival of coach Quique Flores in December. Defensively, they are still scratchy, but since Christmas, they are the sixth-best team in terms of expected goals. According to the expected points calculation, which takes into account performances on both sides of the pitch, they should have scored just two less than Betis.
Sevilla, under Flores, create chances through diagonal passes around the box and long balls with attackers running on the shoulders of defenders - the type of passing which Betis regularly struggle against. And should Plan A fail, En Nesyri and co. are among the players with the highest success rate of connecting with offensive headers and pouncing on loose balls in the final third, while Betis have great difficulty in defending the latter.
