Yakin vs Southgate: A battle between two managers with contrasting fortunes at EURO 2024
The hard facts first: England remain the favourites on paper. This is because they are undefeated in their previous two European Championship duels with Switzerland. while they have lost just one of their last 24 international matches against Switzerland (17 wins, six draws).
England's last defeat against the Swiss was back in May 1981. Furthermore, the Opta 'supercomputer' gives England a 59% chance of making it through to the semi-finals.
However, hard facts are not everything in football. It's often the unexpected things that make a European Championship tournament. The upcoming match could also be a surprise, and taking into account the performances of both teams in the round of 16, Switzerland have a good chance of upsetting the English.
A dominant Swiss display
The Nati were celebrated after their 2-0 win over defending champions Italy. The Swiss media said it was the best performance of the modern era - or at least clearly the best under Murat Yakin. The 49-year-old has been at the helm of the Swiss men's national team since 2021.
The strong performance was not only recognisable on the pitch - it can also be backed up statistically. The Swiss came out of the match with a 16-11 shots scoreline (4-1 on goal), with an xG ratio of 1.25-0.73 and 22-12 ball actions in the opposition penalty area.
The lead in the first half, in which the Nati had 10-1 shots and 58% of the ball, was very well deserved. Remo Freuler's goal in the 37th minute was preceded by a sequence of 31 passes - the most before a European Championship goal since detailed data recording began.
The Swiss were extremely accurate with their passing - the 92% pass success rate was the highest for the national team in a match at a major tournament since 1966.
Tactical mastermind Yakin
The big winner in the Swiss camp so far has been coach Murat Yakin, who was not without controversy before the tournament. This was mainly due to his mixed performances during the European Championship qualifiers.
However, so far at the European Championships, he has proved himself to be a tactician whose decisions have all worked out.
In the first match against Hungary, he surprisingly selected Kwadwo Duah and Michel Aebischer for the starting line-up. Duah scored to make it 1-0 after an assist from Aebischer, and the man who provided the assist scored the second goal himself shortly before the break.
Against Scotland, he started Xherdan Shaqiri from the beginning, who scored brilliantly to make it 1-1, while in the duel against Germany for first place in Group A, Yakin surprisingly chose Fabian Rieder and the midfielder did a solid job as the hosts were pushed to the brink of defeat.
Against Italy, Yakin rotated Ruben Vargas into the starting 11 in place of the suspended Silvan Widmer. The Augsburg winger set up the first goal and scored the second himself - after which he was named UEFA Player of the Match.
English stars struggling
Yakin's next opponent can only dream of those successful decisions as Gareth Southgate continues to face plenty of criticism in the English press. Although the Three Lions have progressed as group winners (with five points, like Switzerland), the performances of the team have been far from convincing.
In the round of 16 against Slovakia, the highly decorated attack of Jude Bellingham, Harry Kane, Phil Foden and Bukayo Saka hardly found any gaps against a resolute opponent and it seemed like Southgate didn't have a Plan B to turn to for large spells of the second half.
It was only thanks to a stroke of genius from Bellingham that the England manager was able to breathe a sigh of relief. Bellingham's overhead kick in the 95th minute was England's first shot on target.
A second was added in extra time, Harry Kane's header to make it 2-1, but Slovakia were the more dangerous team in terms of xG (2.15-1.52).
Much of the criticism of Southgate has centred on the outfield players. Phil Foden, who has mostly played on the right or in the centre at Manchester City, cannot really develop on the left wing, while Bukayo Saka is also struggling on his traditional right wing.
The full-backs - Kyle Walker and Kieran Trippier were in the starting 11 against Slovakia - have not escaped criticism either. Complaints of them playing not enough passes in the attacking third were justified after the game against Slovakia: Walker played only 34% of his passes forward and Trippier was at 30% in this category.
Swiss strength, English weakness
Interestingly, England's weakness overlaps with Switzerland's strength. Recently, Yakin has always found dynamic and effective solutions on the flanks with his flexible 3-4-2-1.
Against Hungary, he used Aebischer as a left winger who shifted into the centre, while against Italy, he deployed Dan Ndoye on the right flank, a fast and offensively orientated wing player.
Coupled with a strong centre in midfield (Xhaka/Freuler) and a stable defence (Rodriguez/Akanji/Schar), this promises to be a major tactical challenge for Southgate.
What England have over Switzerland is an offence with world stars such as Bellingham and Kane (two tournament goals each). Switzerland's seven goals have been scored by seven different players. Only Spain (also seven) have so many different goalscorers in the tournament before the quarter-finals.
The question is whether Yakin will continue the Swiss football fairytale with his strong collective. After all, the first semi-final appearance at a major tournament beckons. Or will the stoic Southgate be the coach who leads England to their first major title since 1966? The answer will be given on Saturday.
