Italy and Croatia to battle it out in crunch do-or-die Group B clash

After Italy conceded the fastest-ever EURO goal against Albania – Nejdim Bajrami found the net 23 seconds into the match after a miscommunication in the Azzurri backline – Croatia were stunned by a 94th-minute equalizer against Sylvinho’s side. Safe to say that both Italy and Croatia aren’t as sharp in the first and last few minutes of the game.

And it’s not even the first time that Italy have conceded so early in an important EURO match: Luke Shaw’s opening goal in last edition’s final also came after just 1 minute and 57 seconds.

Whereas Italy did eventually beat the brave Albanians, Croatia failed to get their one-goal advantage over the line. And where Croatia created a lot of chances in their heavy defeat against Spain, Italy was almost completely toothless in their 1-0 loss against La Furia Roja. The differences in results, attempts and shots faced are clear as day.

If we take a look at some stats from the entire Group of Death, we can conclude that Croatia have been very unlucky, collecting just a single point so far and recording an underperformance of -3.1 in terms Expected Goals, and -1.5 on Expected Goals against – in both cases the worst such performance in the group.

Zlatko Dalic’s side are currently in last place in Group B but lead their entire group for shots (38) and Expected Goals (5.1 xG). Enough reason for confidence, although things probably don’t feel that way after their disappointing result against Albania last time out.

However, despite conceding quite a lot of Expected Goals (3.5 xG), Croatia are still leaning towards the positive (1.6 more xG created than conceded).

That cannot be said for Italy, whose main concern seems to be their offence. And that’s not new. The Azzurri have tried a lot of different strikers in recent years, with none of them proving to be a proficient goalscorer in the national team.

It’s not coincidental that both of Italy’s goals at these EUROs have been scored by a defender (Alessandro Bastoni) and a midfielder (Nicolò Barella). In fact, since the start of their title-winning EURO 2020 campaign, just two of Italy’s 15 goals at the European Championship Finals have been scored by a pure striker (Ciro Immobile against Türkiye and Switzerland).

If we take a look at the top goalscorers of the biggest European sides, Italy seem to be the only nation whose goalscoring record has not been broken in the last ten years:

So, if Italy’s best performers aren’t up front, who has excelled for the Azzurri at EURO 2024? That’s where we find another problem for Luciano Spalletti’s side.

In their EURO opener against Albania, Riccardo Calafiori was praised for his maturity in what was only his third-ever cap for Italy. The 22-year-old had a great season with Bologna, leading them to the Champions League, and could reportedly count on interest of European giants like Chelsea and Juventus.

Against Albania, Calafiori was the Italian with the most successful duels (6), the most won aerial duels (3), the joint-most ball recoveries (5) and interceptions (3), as well as a dribble success rate of 100% (2/2).

In his second match against Spain, however, Calafiori scored a very unlucky own goal causing his side to suffer a 1-0 defeat. Even the more experienced Giovanni Di Lorenzo, who played very solidly against Albania, was dribbled past left, right and centre by Spanish winger Nico Williams on Thursday.

If Italy do make the knock-out stages, Gianluigi Donnarumma deserves a big ‘grazie’. The Azzurri captain almost single-handedly kept his side in the match against a much better Spain side, finishing the clash with eight saves, the highest for any Italian goalkeeper at the EUROs since Francesco Toldo in 2000 (11 against Belgium).

Donnarumma prevented 2.1 goals against Spain, the third-highest such tally in a single match this tournament. It’s also interesting to see that the other two goalkeepers in this ranking have both done so against Croatia – further showing that the Croatians have not had much luck on their side.

So, who can stand up for Croatia? It seems it’s the same names that have been part of the squad for such a long time already: Mateo Kovacic recorded more shot involvements than any other player in Group B (10 – 6 shots, 4 chances created), while only Pedri (6) created more chances from open play than Croatia striker Andrej Kramaric (5).

In this Group of Death, five players have recorded a combined Expected Goals and Expected Assists value of more than 1.0, with four of those doing so for Croatia.

Bruno Petkovic (0 goals from 1.08 Expected Goals) and Ivan Perisic (0 assists from 1.15 Expected Assists) do get in great positions to score or create a goal but have not been able to translate those great numbers into that much-needed output. 

The upcoming game between Croatia and Italy will therefore be very interesting: will the Croatians finally finish their opportunities and make their underlying numbers count? Or can Italy’s goalkeeper once again pull off a miracle? It’s crystal clear that the stakes are high. Very high.

Italy will most likely advance to the next round if they grab at least one point against Croatia (if Albania don’t surprisingly beat Spain), whereas Croatia need a victory over the Azzurri to prevent their first group stage elimination at the EUROs since 2012.

Who will survive the Group of Death? Only time will tell.