Five key things to consider ahead of the EURO 2024 final between Spain and England
The Spanish press
Anyone who watched England's 2-1 win over the Netherlands must have noticed that the Three Lions were given a huge amount of space by the Dutch.
In the first half, the English looked really good. But why? Ronald Koeman's side seemed to have resigned themselves to intense pressing and their three-man midfield relied on personal defence. The rotation of England's players then created a lot of space in the middle of the pitch, which England cleverly exploited.
I am confident that Spain will not allow anything like this to happen. Their pressing is one of the best in the tournament. And if they meet the English from the first minutes like they did against France, it will be interesting to see how Gareth Southgate's team can handle it.
After half an hour of the first half in the semi-final, central midfielder Joey Veerman came on for the injured Memphis Depay and the Dutch switched to a 4-2-3-1 or 4-5-1 formation. With this change, they began to play much more positionally and this led to England having no room to combine and being largely toothless in the second half.
It's quite clear that the Spanish know this and won't allow the same course of action as the Dutch.
Same possession but different stories
Staying with the second half of England vs the Netherlands, the winning side had an Expected Goals (xG) value of 0.12. So it confirms the opinions that England returned to their unattractive game and the match was decided in the end by the duo of Cole Palmer and Ollie Watkins and their individual brilliance.
Throughout the tournament, England have almost identical ball possession to Spain yet they are unable to create the same quality chances. They have scored six fewer goals and, if the Spanish score at least one more in Berlin, they will equal France's record for most goals in a single European Championship from 1984.
Looking at the xG, England have compiled 5.89 while Spain have 10.9. What does that say? Even though England keep the ball well, they find it hugely difficult to get into goal-scoring situations, whereas Spain clearly have no such problem.
Should Kane start?
The very idea of benching captain and elite finisher Harry Kane for the European Championship final may sound crazy and 99% unlikely to come to fruition. But if you look at the exploits of substitute hero Watkins against the Netherlands, especially for the winning goal, one wonders if he showed a lot more offensively in his few minutes on the pitch than the Bayern Munich star did in the entire tournament.
I'm convinced Kane wouldn't have been in the space where Watkins ran onto Palmer's pass because he plays too deep and is too different a player. The Aston Villa striker brought incisiveness to the English game behind the defence and quite possibly showed what England have been missing throughout the tournament.
The battle between the keepers
As for Unai Simon vs Jordan Pickford, I trust the Spaniard more in this duel and I'll try to explain why right now. Both goalkeepers have kept their teams in the tournament, but I see a major difference in their footwork. If the Spanish really pull their pressing on the English, I don't believe Pickford has the same quality of passing as his Spanish counterpart.
Overcoming the first pressing line will be no easy task but Simon does it very well. He can relieve his teammates and get them into an advantageous position with a clever ball. You could say he's setting up the offensive actions. I don't see that ability in Pickford.
That's also why I think it's a realistic scenario that England won't try to play out from the back, so as not to risk some fatal error, and will want to kick long balls to Kane, who will battle with the Spanish stoppers.
The performance of the referees
Those who saw both semi-finals will give me the benefit of the doubt that in terms of refereeing performance, these were two different games.
In one, the viewers eventually forgot the name of the main referee entirely. In the other one, he was not so forgettable. For me, the first option is definitely better, when after the match you do not need to find out what the referee's name is or where he comes from.
Several moments in England's semi-final evoked passion among the fans. The most significant being Bukayo Saka's potential handball before the penalty on Kane.
Sunday's final will be officiated by French referee Francois Letexier, who officiated Spain's match with Georgia. At 35, he will become the youngest referee ever to officiate a men's European Championship final. We can only hope that he will do well and that after the match there will be nothing but praise for him.
