Copa America: Hosts USA are on the rise but they aren't ready to challenge just yet
The national side is also moving in a positive direction under a young squad - evidenced by an encouraging 2022 World Cup campaign. But with optimism, there is always a need for caution and USA's dismal 5-1 defeat against Colombia in their first Copa America warm-up was a stark reminder that they are still very much a work in progress. That was a team performance that was disjointed, and mentally weak - they were simply outplayed.
There was a need for a response against Brazil in their final Copa warm-up game, even if it was just showing some fight.
They did much more than that.
USMNT came from a goal down to draw 1-1 against a Brazilian side led by Ballon D'or candidate Vinicius Junior (23). It was like a completely different side to the one that was played off the park by Colombia and it gave the nation hope. It was a reminder that America are not just making up the numbers at their home tournament - they mean business and should be taken seriously.
The 2022 World Cup success was nothing new
It is not like the USA hasn't made the knockout stages of the World Cup before. Since making their first World Cup in 40 years when they qualified for the 1990 World Cup, they have made the last 16 four times, the quarter-finals once (in France 2002) and failed to qualify just once (in 2018).
However, there is a feeling that their new crop of young talents have greater potential than the sides that came before them. A key part of the renewed positivity can be seen by the fact that their entire starting eleven against Brazil plays their trade in Europe's top five leagues. For players to get into this USMNT, leaving the MLS is becoming somewhat of a necessity and I don't see that as being a negative.
The MLS is still some way behind Europe's top leagues in terms of quality and intensity so the more players who move to Europe and learn from elite managers, the better. The challenge for this new era of the national side is to consistently become a threat at the Copa America and the World Cup and show greater mental strength than they have at times in recent friendlies.
USA open their account at the Copa America against Bolivia in the early hours of Monday morning (00:00 CET) and although Bolivia won the last time the sides met at this tournament, it is a great chance to get off to the perfect start against an inferior side.
They then take on Panama on the 28th of June before their first major challenge against Marcelo Bielsa's Uruguay on the 2nd of July.
Uruguay are vastly different to the team of the past under Bielsa but no less dangerous, in fact, they are my dark horses for the tournament. Therefore, coming away with anything from that game would be some statement from the USA. The reality though is that winning the group could be too much to ask.
Who is the manager and what is his tactical approach?
USA's head coach Gregg Gerhalter was capped 44 times for the national team during his playing days and played at centre-back. Gerhalter spent most of his career moving around different clubs in Europe including one campaign at Crystal Palace.
He first became the US head coach in December 2018 and remained in that role for almost exactly four years before leaving after the 2022 World Cup in Qatar. In Gerhalter's first stint as manager, USA won the 2021 Gold Cup and made the World Cup last 16.
The former defender had originally left after his contract expired with the Soccer Federation deciding not to renew it. Instead, they vowed to conduct a full investigation into claims that Berhalter domestically abused his wife around 30 years ago after finding out about the alleged altercation from the parents of current player Giovanni Reyna.
But just six months later Gerhalter became his own successor after a lengthy process brought the federation full circle. Speaking about their investigation, president of US Soccer Cindy Cone said that it was "an isolated event- we trust those findings and Gregg has our full support."
The federation came to this conclusion despite Gerhalter admitting that he did kick his wife when they were teenagers.
Back on the pitch, Gerhalter's side have had mixed fortunes. In July they lost the Gold Cup final on penalties to Panama despite beating Canada in the semi-finals. Since then they have beaten World Cup regulars Ghana 4-0 in a friendly, Mexico 2-0 in a Nations League match and lost 3-1 to Germany in a friendly.
It seems USMNT are a side capable of beating good nations, losing badly to very good nations and producing the occasional fragile defeats to countries they should be putting to the sword.
Gerhalter typically sets his team up in a 4-3-3 formation with one holding midfielder protecting the back four. He wants his team to dominate possession, passing out from the back and high-pressing the opposition. His critics say that he doesn't have the personnel to play that way and at times against stronger opposition, his stubbornness to play from the back has been exposed.
Take their recent 5-1 defeat against Colombia for example. It was individual errors which came from playing out from the back that helped turn a quiet defeat into a humiliating night and their worst loss since the Jurgen Klinsmann era.
In some ways, it is admirable that Gerhalter is trying to play a modern brand of football and with a young group of players only likely to improve, it could reap rewards in the long term. However, in the short term, there are concerns about how far USNMT might go at this Copa America playing the way they do.
Who are the key players to watch out for?
The good news is that this is an exciting group of players who have a bright future led by captain America Christian Pulisic (25). The AC Milan winger has become the face of the national side and he rarely lets his nation down.
Pulisic scored from the spot to give USA a priceless draw with Brazil last week and scored against both Ghana and Germany in the October international break last season. If his club form has been inconsistent in the last few years, it hasn't shown when he's put on the USA shirt and he will play a vital role in his country's hopes at the Copa America.
Away from Pulisic, Antonee Robinson (26) is a fantastic attacking full-back who had an astounding season at Fulham, Reyna's career has stalled but he still possesses huge talent and Weston Mckennie (25) played a key part in a Juventus side who finished third in Serie A and won the Coppa Italia.
Wherever you look there are players who play week in and week out in Europe - the USMNT for all its faults are a talented side.
They shouldn't expect to challenge at the Copa America as Argentina, Brazil, Colombia and Uruguay are all better, but with home advantage and some talented young players at their disposal, they should make it out of their group. From there, they will likely face Brazil or Colombia in the quarter-finals and that could be where their journey ends.
If it is Colombia though, they owe it to their fans to put up a much better fight than last time. There is no excuse for anything less. If they do that and get some luck along the way, the hosts could find themselves in the latter stages - where dreams become reality.
