OPINION: Victory at Leicester could set Arsenal on a potentially title winning path

As an Arsenal fan, the last week and a half has been carnage. I've been through the absolute wringer. 

Before the Manchester City game: Excitement.

After the Manchester City game: Disappointment.

Halftime against Aston Villa: Severe distress.

Full-time against Aston Villa: Ecstacy.

After City's game against Nottingham Forest: Euphoria.

Excuse the cliche, but that is the definition of a rollercoaster of emotions.

In the space of three days, I went from thinking that Arsenal's first Premier League title since 2004 was slipping away, to suddenly believing that I could really be watching the bus parade this summer.

But there are 15 games to go. I must keep a level head. It is the hope that kills after all. Don't look too far ahead.

Too late.

I've already plotted Arsenal's path to victory. I am in fact, 15 steps ahead.

And according to my unquestionably accurate calculations, Arsenal's aspirations of winning the league will get a significant boost with a victory this weekend.

This isn't one of those "the next game is always the most important" types of games. No, seriously, the next game is really important.

By the way, I feel egregious just typing this. Should I even put this out? This is a certified jinx.

So why is the Leicester match of paramount importance?

Well firstly, they're simply a good side with some quality attacking players. They are 14th in the Premier League, but they are a better unit than that.

Well, when James Maddison is fit.

Their game revolves around the playmaker. Since the start of the 2021/22 season, with him in the side, the Foxes average 1.9 goals per game, 1.5 points per game, and have a win rate of 42%.

Without Maddison, they average 1.1 goals, 0.8 points, and have a win rate of just 18%. They are a different team with him.

Prior to their 3-0 loss to Manchester United last weekend (a game in which they should have bagged a number of goals with all the chances they created) they scored 10 goals in their last three games. 

The last game they didn't score in was against Forest. Without Maddison.

Additionally, the Gunners' defence has looked a lot shakier in recent weeks, leaking nine goals in their last five. 

And if Arsenal can get over this hurdle, they have a really attractive run of games coming up.

Sure, no game can be taken lightly in the Premier League. I know that. Mikel Arteta knows that.

But a five-match run against Everton (H), Bournemouth (H), Fulham (A), Crystal Palace (H) and Leeds United (H) is really appealing.

Four home games, and the one away from the Emirates is just across London.

Three of those sides are in a proper relegation battle, while Palace might even find themselves involved in a scrap down the bottom too.

They are legitimately all very winnable fixtures. The trip to Craven Cottage will be tricky, but an Arsenal team at their best should pick up three points.

And so that takes me to my next point. An Arsenal team at their best.

Over the last four games, they've not quite been at their early season level.

Eight points dropped out of their last possible 12 isn't good, and most certainly not the form of champions. Thankfully City have not been the unabating force of nature of yesteryear.

Dips happen in a season. It was never going to be a cakewalk. Which is why Arsenal need to show their mental fortitude and resilience, which was on show against Villa. Arteta will have accepted these performances and results with equanimity, but now it's time to really bounce back.

They need to shake away the jitters. Consecutive wins at Villa Park and then the King Power will silence some of the doubters for the time being, and instil a huge dose of confidence among players and fans alike.

Thomas Partey is likely to return to the starting XI for the game this weekend, and his return will come as a welcome boost. The fulcrum of this Arsenal side, he offers the type of dynamism and defensive protection that his understudy Jorginho - who has been good in his own right - just can't give.

But what could possibly be even more game-changing is the return of Gabriel Jesus. The Brazilian started the season in vintage form, contributing to Arsenal's fluid and exciting attacking football.

Eddie Nketiah has done a great job standing in, but he isn't the type of striker that Jesus is. His performances have also been extremely shaky recently.

Nketiah's all-round game has improved ten-fold, but he does his best work in the penalty area, whereas Jesus does some of his best work outside of it.

Which suits Arteta's style of football, and also helps bring the best out of Gabriel Martinelli, who perhaps hasn't been as electrifying as he could be in the last month.

With left-back Oleksandr Zinchenko taking up a role in midfield as an inverted full-back, Martinelli is often left isolated. Jesus tends to drift to the left and give his international teammate support, something Nketiah doesn't do.

Jesus' return should come in the middle of the 'easier' run of games, and just in time for a busy April schedule, which includes a trip to the Etihad.

So if Arsenal can beat Leicester on Saturday, things will look a lot kinder and more positive for them in March compared to what has been a tough February.

And then if they can stretch their lead over the chasing pack during the next month, with nine games left, they will be in a sensational position to win the Premier League.

So here I am. Sitting at home, chuckling as I type away excitedly with a wry smile on my face at the possibility of seeing my football club win a league title for the first time in my memory, having constructed the formula to victory.

In all seriousness, it isn't going to be easy. Even if Arsenal get six wins from their next six games, finishing off their charge for the title will be a challenge for a young group of players.

But as a wise American coach on Apple TV once said: "Taking on a challenge is a lot like riding a horse, isn't it? If you're comfortable while you're doing it, you're probably doing it wrong."