Hack the weekend: Traps in battle for Romanian title, Lisen face Opava test
That's why Flashscore, in cooperation with a team of analysts from Czech data company 11Hacks, is bringing you a data-driven overview every Friday about where those (un)expected results might occur in the wide world of football to help you ultimately hack the weekend.
FCSB - Sepsi
Looking at the Romanian league standings, this should be a clear-cut affair. FCSB are just three points away from first place and leaders Farul Constanta, while Sepsi are at the bottom of the six-team championship group with a 13-point gap. At the same time, however, this is a team that has had a huge dose of bad luck during the current season, which cannot continue forever.
According to the metric of expected points, which takes into account the quality of chances created and allowed and then calculates the probability with which a team wins, loses or draws a match, it should even be the current table leader.
Sepsi should have gained a staggering 17 points more than they actually recorded: 12 after the regular season and five in the championship group so far.
Only its Monday opponent from Bucharest has a better quality attack across the season. The team led by Italian Cristiano Bergodi (58) has accumulated 46 xG, from which it has scored 44 goals, which is not such a big difference to blame its current position in the table on the exaggerated inability of its offensive players to finish.
In the final third, moreover, Sepsi has a multitude of different strategies depending on the opponent they are currently up against. And although FCSB are very capable going forward, towards the back they are one of the more average teams in the league. Given that they desperately need a win in the title chase, the underdogs in the eyes of the bookmakers should have space open up for attacking forays.
As much as possible, they will want to make the most of the well-managed diagonal passing from the central area in front of the bbox and the intermediate spaces from which FCSB have long allowed a high number of chances.
Sepsi has the league's best defence with an average of 0.77 xG per game and FCSB will quite possibly miss key midfielder Malcom Edjouma (26) due to a muscle injury. The burly Frenchman not only ranks among the league's best defending central midfielders, but also has a huge offensive upside for his team.
He has a great feel for picking his spots in the penalty area, an excellent final pass and is very difficult to defend in the final third of the pitch. The balance of nine goals and three assists in 1,800 minutes of play is certainly no fluke, and if he misses the game , FCSB will have it a little more difficult against Sepsi.
Lisen - Opava
Predicting a loss for second-placed Lisen, who will play the 14th-placed Opava at home, may seem bold at first. However, the second Czech league is an extremely unpredictable competition where things are often not what they seem. A good example from the current season is Dukla Prague.
Despite the hiring of experienced coach Petr Rada (64), they were embroiled in a relegation fight in the autumn, but it was not a situation that corresponded with its attacking and defensive performances. By the metrics of expected points at the time, they should have been fourth. And indeed. In the spring, the team is rapidly rising up the table and is only one point away from the play-off positions.
Opava is now in a similar position as Dukla once was. It too is supposed to be 10 places higher in terms of quality of chances created and allowed, unluckily, however, in a situation where there are only five rounds left in the league and they have a very difficult opponent against them.
But not unbeatable. There will be a battle between two of the league's best defences and very capable attacks. Opava's is even the third best behind Dukla and Vlasim, Lisen is fourth in this respect. With new coach Miroslav Brozek at the helm, Opava defeated the favoured Karvina in the last round. Can they surprise another favourite now?
Farul Constanta - Rapid Bucharest
The league leader Farul Constanta lost a slim 1-0 lead at Sepsi in injury time in their last game and missed a last-minute chance to jump into a five-point lead.
With both FCSB and CFR Cluj still within touching distance of top spot, Farul will face the erratic Rapid at home - a team that FCSB and Cluj have beaten in the last two rounds.
Farul are not in a very impressive form at the moment. They have won only twice out of the last five games, which is not that surprising considering how balanced the Romanian league is. In the table of expected points, Rapid are even four points above their next opponent.
The match, which according to the data models has no clear favourite, may well be decided by the goalkeeper's performance. They are the asset of both teams in the current season, but Rapid benefits from it a bit more. Mihai Aioani (23) has been very reliable for Farul, while Rapid has been held by Horatiu Moldovan (25) many times.
He has improved on his already good performances from last season and together with Karlo Letica (26) and Catalin Straton (33) he is currently one of the best goalkeepers in the league. If an average Liga 1 goalkeeper stood in his place, Rapid would have scored about eight points less than they have according to the data models. And against Farul, Moldovan will have a chance to confirm his skills.
