The favourite in the NFC
The 49ers led by 10 points in last season's Super Bowl, but it was not enough to hoist the Vince Lombardi Trophy again for the first time since 1994. It was the Chiefs who went on to win it, and in San Fran, people looked at each other in disbelief - how this could go wrong? And that is not surprising. A lot is right with the 49ers, even if it came about with some coincidence.
At first, hopes were pinned on quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, but he was more injured than fit. It forced the team to give up a lot in the 2021 NFL Draft for Trey Lance, but that, along with injuries, turned into a flop. One Brock Purdy, the very last pick (number 262) during the 2022 NFL Draft eventually remained and he turned out to be the biggest surprise of recent years in the NFL.
Despite the previous success, it was a troubled summer in the Bay Area. Wide receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk were at the centre of transfer rumours, but just before the season, it looked very much like Purdy had his main receivers at his disposal. On top of that, the 49ers chose receiver Ricky Pearsall in the first round of the NFL Draft, so the depth is fine. In addition, the outstanding tight end George Kittle is also in the mix and All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey creates chaos against every defence. There are some slight concerns about the offensive line, but Trent Williams fortunately plays like two players.
On the other side of the ball, some big names left, but that was handled excellently and you could even argue that this unit has been improved. Leonard Floyd is an upgrade over Chase Young and Maliek Collins replaces Arik Armstead, who, like Young, moved to Jacksonville. There is little doubt about San Francisco's status. In the division, the Los Angeles Rams are the only serious challenger, so a division title seems the minimum goal. However, last season we saw that the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers, among others, were very close to the level of the 'Niners', and the team will take on strong teams in the AFC this season, such as the Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, New York Jets and... the Kansas City Chiefs.
With that, nothing can be taken for granted, but the 49ers certainly don't need to fear either. They will be seen as the team to beat in many of those games. The Super Bowl loss will have been pushed into the background by now, but it is not completely gone. That is why this season is not only about the sporting challenge but also the mental one. Anything less than a Super Bowl would be disappointing for a team clearly invested in winning now.
Competition in the NFC
Detroit Lions
If every head coach made a team better, there would never be layoffs in the NFL. But before the Detroit Lions fire Dan Campbell, a lot has to happen. With his arrival, a historically poor franchise has become one of the most enjoyable teams in the NFC and they were also close to a Super Bowl last season, a pleasure the Michigan team had never had before. Campbell changed the culture and for the first time since the Super Bowl era, the Lions won two consecutive playoff games. Visiting the 49ers, they deserved the win but gave it away.
A weak unit can be the difference between an important win or a heartbreaking loss, and Detroit's secondary might just be the reason they don't start the season as NFC champions. If the Lions' pass defence does not improve they are not going to make it. General manager Brad Holmes traded for Carlton Davis III and drafted corners Terrion Arnold and Ennis Rakestraw Jr. in the first two rounds and said goodbye to veterans Cam Sutton and DB CJ Gardner-Johnson. Whether it's enough band-aid we're going to see.
If it works, Detroit could be a realistic contender to make it to the Super Bowl on behalf of the NFC. The draft picks in 2023, including tight end Sam LaPorta and running back Jahmyr Gibbs were spot on and if they continue to develop, out of all 32 teams in the NFL, Detroit might be the team to look forward to the most. Backed by a boisterous home crowd, Ford Field will shake to its foundations again this year and hope for the first time in a very long time that it is not a disappointment in Motown.
Green Bay Packers
We stay a little longer in the NFC North, where the Packers took only a short time to disengage from quarterback Aaron Rodgers. They had Jordan Love ready for some time and he developed into a mature quarterback last season. It could just be that Green Bay is thus transforming flawlessly from Brett Favre to Rodgers to Love. Their newest franchise quarterback wiped the floor with the Dallas Cowboys in the playoffs and promptly got to sign a four-year deal worth $220 million.
With that money, expectations have been raised, though. The Packers led 21-14 against the 49ers during the Divisional Round, but there was a collapse in the fourth quarter. That can happen with a quarterback playing his first full season alongside a very young but talented defence. 2024 should be about creating stability and growth. It will be needed in a division where the Lions are impressing and the Chicago Bears are knocking on the door. The NFC North could well be an old-fashioned bloodbath and we as viewers cannot wait.
The Eagles have had a crazy season last time out. The losing Super Bowl participant of the 2022 season knuckled down to a 10-1 record. That included wins against the Chiefs, Bills, Cowboys and Dolphins. Either way, that's very impressive. And then things went horribly wrong. Before an embarrassing defeat in the playoffs against the Buccaneers, there were defeats against the (Drew Lock-led) Seahawks, Cardinals and Giants. The unrest among players and coaching staff was visible and palpable and it hurt QB Jalen Hurts as well.
His qualities are unquestionable, but is he the leader who can take the Eagles to another Vince Lombardi Trophy? He was close once, but when you are empty-handed after a final, people are going to see you that way. Perhaps the lack of a dynamic player in 'the backfield' had too great an impact on the attack.
Saquon Barkley is undoubtedly that and he can catch a ball just fine too. It gives Hurts more options than its fantastic receivers and makes the attack more versatile. The defence was not as good as the 10-1 after 11 games suggested and there, too, the problems were quickly exposed in December and January.
Besides the arrival of Vic Fangio as defensive coordinator, linebacker Devin White was brought in and safety Chauncey Gardner-Johnson was brought back, among others. In that respect, there is little to criticise about Philly's offseason, but are things right in the locker room?
Dallas Cowboys
Putting the Cowboys among the contenders is not that simple. But three consecutive 12-5 record in the regular season says something, of course. At the same time, it would be scoreboard journalism to cite only that as a reason. That said, the painful elimination in the playoffs at home stadium against the Packers still reverberates in Dallas. You just don't forget some defeats that quickly, which is why the Cowboys need a flying start to refocus on another chance. Is Dak Prescott the quarterback for another push to the Super Bowl? There is a lot of doubt.
When everything is right around him, Dak is a great QB. When injuries occur and the offensive line struggles - as it did in 2022 - he is not the elite player to step up a gear. Last season, the team was in good shape, but star players like Tyron Smith and Tyler Biadasz left. That could be a big impact on Prescott, whose contract expires after this season. That it has not been renewed (yet) is a sweeping sign and if this year disappoints, Prescott's project could well turn into a major disappointment because, despite impressive regular seasons, the terms Cowboys and Super Bowl are rarely mentioned in the same sentence. Except for this one.
Los Angeles Rams
Just three Super Bowls ago, it was the Rams who became 'world champions' of American football with Matthew Stafford as the impressive leader of the attack. The quarterback is still there and shows few signs of decline, apart from a nasty injury. Still, the Rams struggled after their Super Bowl victory against the Cincinnati Bengals. They failed to make the playoffs in 2022 and lost to the Lions by one point in the wildcard round of the last playoffs. At the same time, that result does indicate that we should not discount Los Angeles.
Stafford is a veteran, but still the best option for the Rams, who have one of the best coaches in the NFL with Sean McVay. Of course, it took a while to get over the retirement of Aaron Donald, but for years the franchise has shown its ability to absorb losses through aggressive trading or smart draftees. The team will have a lot of fun with running backs Kyren Williams and Blake Corum, but even they cannot absorb another injury to Stafford. So keeping the quarterback healthy and whole is an important part of the Rams' potential success, perhaps more so than with any other team.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs did incredibly well last year and deserve credit for that. The Florida team handled the departure of QB Tom Brady just fine, and with a resurgent Baker Mayfield, they won their third NFC South title in a row. Tampa Bay has been in the playoffs for four years in a row and yet hardly anyone sees them as a Super Bowl contender. That is partly due to the NFC South division that has been weak for years and the lack of earth-shattering acquisitions. Many teams would kill for WR duo Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, but even they needed an elite QB like Brady for a Super Bowl run. There is very little wrong with the Bucs, but they seem to be just short of the great players of the moment, as evidenced by their defeat in the playoffs against the Lions.
Mayfield is already having to get used to a new offensive coordinator, as so often in his volatile career. However, he still knows Liam Coen from his short stint with the Rams. The team will hope for a development in running back Rachaad White, who had the most offensive snaps among running backs in the NFL last year. He finished with more than 1,500 yards from scrimmage and nine touchdowns and was one of the best dual-threat backs in the league. The defence looks solid under defensive coordinator Todd Bowles, who is also the head coach, a notable dual role. A lot depends on Mayfield. If he can at least match his 'career year', the Bucs are a dangerous team to face.
The next best
A few weeks ago, we would characterise the Falcons as a team with upside, but we still rank them just below the top at the start of the season. Their choice to pick QB Michael Penix Jr. in the draft while the ink had just dried on QB Kirk Cousins' contract remains odd, but the moves they made later give more confidence. With the arrival of outside linebacker Matthew Judon and safety Justin Simmons, the whole narrative about the defence changed overnight. The potential is huge and, if all goes well, it is going to help Cousins have a chance of winning in many games. Atlanta needs that if it wants to make the playoffs for the first time since 2017. If it fails, heads will undoubtedly roll again.
Teams with an upside
Chicago Bears
When the Bears chose Mitchell Trubisky (and not Patrick Mahomes) a few years ago, the team hoped to have finally secured a franchise quarterback. It was equally promising, but not good enough. The helplessness could be read from the loyal crowd at iconic Soldier Field. However, the furrowed brows gave way to wet eyes when the opportunity presented itself for Caleb Williams. He is one of the most anticipated talents at the quarterback position this century so all hopes in Chicago were gathered and the spotlight was on one player brighter than ever before. Around that, a lot changed too. The new regime is seemingly making the right choices. There is a huge upside, but no one in Chicago will complain if Williams fulfils all the prayers and wishes but falls just short of the playoffs.
Too many question marks
Seattle Seahawks
Everything is different in Seattle and then again, it isn't. During the summer, they went from the oldest head coach in Pete Carroll to the youngest with Mike Macdonald. He learned the job in perhaps the best place in the United States: Baltimore. There, he led an insanely good defence and when they asked him to become head coach in Seattle, he couldn't say no. He encounters a completely different situation with more questions than answers with the Seahawks. Geno Smith is a fine middle-of-the-road quarterback, but anyone who cares about the 'Hawks understands that he is not the guy who is going to make sure this team competes for the biggest marbles in the schoolyard. For that, there are too many questions on the offensive line and at the position of inside linebacker, where Bobby Wagner left. It seems Macdonald will get time and he will no doubt be thinking about the quarterback position for 2025 now.
Everything points to a complete makeover in Washington and that is good news for several reasons. The old management under Dan Snyder was an embarrassment to the NFL. The entire organisation suffered from bullying, misogyny and financial mismanagement. The Commanders will get a chance to put that period behind them in 2024. There is a new coach in defensive mastermind Dan Quinn and a new quarterback with rookie Jayden Daniels. Let's take a shot at optimism - lot of good players came in during free agency, the crowd showed up en masse during practices for the first time in many years and this year's draft was received approvingly. We've never been able to write that about the Commanders before.
No team had a worse offseason than the Vikings, who we currently rate as the fourth-ranked team in the NFC North. When put behind the Lions, Packers AND Bears, that doesn't mean much good. With the departure of Kirk Cousins, there is no franchise quarterback left, rookie QB J.J. McCarthy was badly injured and no one in Minneapolis is getting hot about Sam Darnold. Many picks point to a soft rebuild, although the public can still have fun with one of the best receivers in the NFL: Justin Jefferson. Will it be enough to ensure the magnificent US Bank Stadium is packed until the last game? We fear not.
Since the departure of QB Drew Brees after the 2020 season, there has been no success in 'The Big Easy'. Not that it's all drama, as there are occasionally wonderful games played in the Caesars Superdome, but it didn't lead to the playoffs in the past three years. And with that, it has been shown that QB Derek Carr is not the solution for a franchise that doesn't know what to do. The Saints themselves will explain it as stability, but the rest of the NFL certainly won't look at the team with any trepidation.
Offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael, who has been with New Orleans since 2006, was fired, but is that the solution? These are the problems of a team in the middle of the league. Tanking them would not be a great option and the top is out of reach. Bright spot: the delightful receiver Chris Olave. Watch him.
Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals have been a team rebuilding for a while now, while they have a franchise quarterback at home. However, Kyler Murray was far from fit the last two years and that held Arizona back. He seems to be back now and he has this year's biggest WR talent at his disposal after the NFL Draft: Marvin Harrison Jr. But the Cardinals have gotten better and deeper at other positions as well. The Glendale crowd have not had it easy, but this team is looking their best in years. The combination of weapons through the air and a fine run game with James Conner is something to be happy about and great strides have been made to take the defence to the next level. Are the Cardinals there yet? No, at least one more season is needed to flirt with the playoffs.
New York Giants
A winning 9-7-1 record and winning a playoff game was the worst thing that could happen to the Giants in 2022. They suddenly started believing in their own ability and that of quarterback Daniel Jones. He even got a bag of money, but a year later it turned out to be a rebound that did not do justice to the potential of the player material. This year, New York is still stuck with Jones and the picks made during the draft showed that a rebuild will also have to wait another year. Of all the teams in the NFC, expectations for this team are perhaps the lowest. That means anything that does get won will be greeted with success. That would have to happen to rookie WR Malik Nabers. Fair is fair, he is the weapon Jones never had.
The ugly duckling in the NFL. The team threw everything at being the first to pick a player in the 2023 draft, but the Panthers were not ready for a rookie quarterback at all and then that quarterback turned out not to be ready for the big time either. It became one big mess and the Panthers, even now, are nowhere near where any self-respecting NFL team should be. The eccentric owner is stomping through his own organisation like a clown, and he would be wise to hand over the keys to the people who have learned how to run the franchise. Until he does, there will be nothing in Charlotte and QB Bryce Young doesn't deserve that. He deserves a fair chance in the NFL, and we cautiously conclude that things are looking a little better for him this year.
